IDC Growth Predictions for 2014

IDC's annual IT spending forecast is summarized below. Big winners:

  • Worldwide tech spending: 5% increase
  • Cloud Computing will surge by 25%
  • Big Data will enjoy a 30% increase

Summary article by David Weldon in FierceCIO, original by Connie Guglielmo in Forbes.
Emphasis in red added by me.
Brian Wood, VP Marketing

Get Ready for IT in 2014

Expect the IT landscape in 2014 to look a lot like 2013 in terms of what is hot, according to new research from International Data Group. There just may be a bit more to it.
The research firm has released predictions for worldwide technology spending in the new year, which it says will see a 5 percent increase. That increased spending will be driven in large part by investments in mobile computing, cloud services, big data and analytics, and social networking.
IDC has given those technologies the collective term of "the 3rd platform," according to an article at Forbes. "We'll see every major player make big investments to scale up cloud, mobile and big data capabilities, and fiercely battle for the hearts and minds of the developers who create the solutions driving the next two decades of IT spending," Frank Gens, chief analyst at IDC, was quoted as saying. "Outside the IT industry, 3rd platform technologies will play a leading role in the disruption--or "Amazoning"--of almost every other industry on the planet," he added.
One area of IT that should brace for a tough year is PC sales.
According to IDC, that market will suffer a 6 percent decline. Most PC sales will be for replacements, not new purchases, and IDC calls the PC market "under stress" at this time. Not so in the mobile space. Sales of smartphones and tablets will be at a "torrid pace," the research firm says.
Also seeing strong sales in 2014 will be the server, storage, networks, software and services markets.
As to specific markets, some IDC projections are as follows:

  • Emerging markets--IDC sees growth in the emerging markets space increasing to over 10 percent. Emerging markets growth will account for $740 billion, or 35 percent of worldwide IT revenues.
  • Platform-as-a-service--Amazon Web Services will roll out an "avalanche" of new platform-as-a-service offerings, the company predicts, placing greater pressure on second tier providers to up their game.
  • Mobile--Sales of tablet computers will jump by 18 percent and smartphone sales by 12 percent, IDC forecasts.
  • Cloud computing--If you thought 2013 was a busy year for the cloud, just wait. IDC predicts a 25 percent increase in cloud computing investments in 2014, with the value of the market expected to top $100 billion.
  • Big data--Outpacing the growth in the cloud market will be investments in big data and analytics. IDC anticipated a 30 percent increase in this market, which will top $14 billion in value. The only thing putting the brakes on big data growth will be a shortage of data scientists and data analysts to handle the desired workloads.
  • Social technologies--No longer just for your teens, social technologies will become even more closely integrated into business systems, with the goal being improved customer engagement and marketing strategies.
  • The Internet of Things--This will move beyond smartphones, tablets and PCs in to new consumer electronics and devices markets.

IDC Predicts Boom Times In 2014 For Cloud Services, Social, Mobile, Big Data, Bust For PCs

Demand for mobile computing, cloud services, big data and analytics and social networking — which together form a technology platform that market researcher IDC is calling “the 3rd platform" — will help drive a 5 percent jump in worldwide spending on information technology in 2014 to $2.1 trillion.
Apple, Google, Samsung and Amazon will be among the prime beneficiaries.
Spending on those 3rd platform technologies  will grow 15 percent year over year and account for 89 percent of IT spending growth, IDC said in its list of 2014 predictions for the tech industry released today. Sales of smartphones and tablets will continue at a “torrid pace” and spending on servers, storage, networks, software, and services see a revival. The news isn’t so bright for PCs, with the market remaining “under stress” as PC sales are expected to decline 6 percent.
“We’ll see every major player make big investments to scale up cloud, mobile, and big data capabilities, and fiercely battle for the hearts and minds of the developers who will create the solutions driving the next two decades of IT spending,” said Frank Gens, chief analyst at IDC. “Outside the IT industry, 3rd platform technologies will play a leading role in the disruption — or “Amazoning” — of almost every other industry on the planet.”
Here are seven other tech predictions from IDC. You can see the complete list here.
1. Emerging markets revival. Demand for tech in emerging market will “return to double-digit growth of 10 percent, driving nearly $740 billion or 35% of worldwide IT revenues and, for the first time, more than 60% of worldwide IT spending growth. In the BRIC countries, IT spending will grow by 13% year over year, led by an economic recovery in China. In dollar terms, China’s IT spending growth will match that of the United States, even though the Chinese market is only one third the size of the U.S. market. Elsewhere, emerging market growth will be uneven, ushering in the beginning of a new “Post-BRIC” era.”
2. Platform as a service. “Value will start to migrate “up the stack”, from infrastructure as a service (IaaS) to platform as a service (PaaS) and from generic PaaS to data-optimized PaaS. The latter will be most evident as Amazon Web Services rolls out an avalanche of platform-as-a-service offerings for developers and higher value services for businesses. This will force incumbent IT suppliers – the companies that won market leadership in the 2nd Platform era – to urgently reconfigure themselves to fight for position in the 3rd Platform marketplace. Joining them in the fight will be Google, which will realize it is at risk of being boxed out of a market where it should be vying for leadership.”
3. Mobile keeps ruling. Sales of tablets is expected to rise by 18 percent and smartphones by 12 percent. “The Android community, led by Samsung, will maintain its volume advantage over Apple, while Apple will hold onto its value edge with higher average selling prices and an established ecosystem of apps,” IDC says. But Google will grain ground. “Google Play (Android) app downloads and revenues are making dramatic gains and the ‘app ecosystem value gap’ will be significantly narrowed in 2014. And the clock will be ticking louder for Microsoft MSFT -4.12%, which needs to quickly double mobile developer interest in Windows.”
4. Money in the cloud. Cloud spending, including services and the technology needed to enable these services, will surge by 25 percent in 2014, topping $100 billion. IDC predicts a “dramatic increase in the number of datacenters as cloud players race to achieve global scale. This will be accompanied by a similar expansion in the variety of workload-specialized cloud infrastructure services, leading to new forms of differentiation among cloud service providers. Finally, a pitched battle will be joined for the developers that can create the cloud-based applications and solutions that will fuel the market’s growth.”
5. Big data equals big spending. Sales of big data technologies and services will grow by 30 percent in 2014, “surpassing $14 billion as demand for big data analytics skills continues to outstrip supply. Here the race will be on to develop “data-optimized cloud platforms”, capable of leveraging high volumes of data and/or real-time data streams.”
6. No more social layer. Social technologies will become even more tied into enterprise applications over the next 12-18 months. In addition to being used for “customer engagement and marketing strategies, data from social applications will feed the product and service development process. IDC expects enterprise social networks will become increasingly available as standard offerings from cloud services providers. This will enable enterprises to further embed social into the workflow, rather than having a separate “social layer.”
7. The Internet of Things. The Internet of Things (IoT) will move beyond smartphones, tablets and PCs in 2014. “New industry partnerships to emerge as traditional IT vendors accelerate their partnerships with global telecom service providers and semiconductor vendors to create integrated offerings in the consumer electronics and connected device spaces. This kind of collaboration and coordination will be necessary to reach the 30 billion autonomously connected end points and $8.9 trillion in revenues that IDC believes the IoT will generate by 2020.”